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The first urban decade

The last half of the 20th Century was dominated by suburbia, but cities made a comeback in the first decade of the new millennium.


    In late November Philadelphia received some good news. The city challenged the US Census Bureau’s population estimate, which had trended downward throughout the first decade of the new millennium. It turns out, then, that Philadelphia had 1.54 million residents in 2008, a whopping 93,000 above what the Census Bureau figured. That revision is about equal to the population of Boulder, Colorado.

The new numbers represent a remarkable about-face for Philadelphia, which peaked in residents in 1950 and then lost more than a quarter of its population during the next half-century.

Much of Philadelphia’s loss during that period can be attributed to household size. Nationwide, household size dropped by 18 percent. In cities like Philadelphia, this trend was bolstered by the tendency of middle class families with children to relocate to the suburbs for better schools and less crime. But the disinvestment and decay were also dramatic — as only the poor were left behind in many sectors of the city. By the 1980s, square miles of Philadelphia that once teemed with families were dominated by vacant houses and lots. That’s still the case.

Yet counter-forces were also at work. Even as the city lost people, many families bought cheap housing and rehabilitated it, new housing was built in many neighborhoods, and immigrants continued to arrive in significant numbers. Many people held on to the unparalleled cultural advantages of city life.

Upward versus downward forces

The downward forces held the upper hand from 1950 to 2000 — the suburban half-century. It wasn’t until very near the new millennium that the fortunes of older cities like Philadelphia began to turn. Crime was dropping, and the Brookings Institution came out with a report in 1999 that predicted that the number of downtown residents would increase by 2010 in Philadelphia and major cities throughout the US — although cities as a whole were predicted to continue to lose population.

As the Philadelphia numbers show, Brookings may have underestimated the urban comeback. Nor was Philadelphia unique. Boston, which made four Census Bureau challenges since 2006, has seen its official population rise to 620,535 from 559,034, according to a report in the Philadelphia Daily News. In the midst of the worst economy since the 1930s, Washington, DC, added nearly 10,000 residents from 2008 to 2009, according to the Census Bureau. The city has gained about 28,000 people since 2000. New York City, Alexandria, Baltimore, Milwaukee, and many other cities have challenged population estimates and found unexpected new residents.

You can see it on the ground in Philadelphia, where Center City and other neighborhoods are improving steadily. You can see it in cities all across the US where it appears that, for the first decade since the 1940s, the upward forces now have the upper hand.

Now, I know that tough economic times are hurting cities like every other place. But I predict that the official 2010 Census will reveal a reversal of fortune for many cities in the US. I also predict that this trend will carry forward to the coming decades. Not only will cities gain population — but so will walkable towns and neighborhoods outside of cities. As more people choose to live in these places, other things will inevitably change — like the relative quality of schools and infrastructure compared to drivable suburbs. This last decade was the start of a new urban half-century.



This article is available in the January/February 2010 issue of New Urban News, along with images and many more articles not available online. Subscribe or order the individual issue.

 

By Robert Steuteville